On 2009-03-20 02:16:48 -0700, Igor Chudov <ichudov[at]algebra.com> said:

- quote -

The problem is that some of us, like me, who bought somewhere in the
"middle," as it turned out, now have no more money to invest when the
opportunity looks good. Then, when things get better I will probably
swear that prices are too high at some point and then find that they
keep on going still higher. Deciding when the top and bottom have
arrived is harder than predicting which company or which fund will
perform well.

Tad Borek wrote:
- quote -

It is short-sighted to make an arbitrary assumption about the need to move
goalposts in order to be relevant, but to address your specific concern ...
stock prices in 1982 traded at a price/value discount 20% deeper than last
November and 10% deeper than current levels, thereby easily taking the "Big
Kahuna" trophy for the "our investing lifetime" competition. Thus, the only
"hindsight" necessary is historical perspective -- the longer the better.

"There's nothing new under the sun ... that which is has been before."

Tortoise wrote:
- quote -

Of course, not many current investors were around to exploit those dips!
We only really care about the Big Kahunas that happen during our
investing lifetimes.

-Tad

Tad Borek wrote:
- quote -

Last November's valuations were last seen in 1984, current valuations go back to
1982.

- quote -

Not really. The Big Kahuna to-date (in terms of value/price deviations) was the
bottom of 1932, followed by the bottom of 1857. The current valuation cycle
began in 1982, when the market traveled from -2 to +2SD in the space of two
decades, and subsequently returned back to near -2SD in less than a decade.

The important thing to keep in mind is that just because the market is
overvalued doesn't mean it cannot become even more overvalued, and vice versa.
Value is a rational, invisible anchor; Price is an emotional, visible expression
which is tied to value via a leash. Thus, Price is free to run in either
direction until it exhausts the leash's limit, at which point it's yanked back
in the opposite direction. Therefore, value is a long-term potential, not a
short-term promise.

Of course, if all you see is a dog (without noticing the anchor or knowing the
length of the leash), the whole thing looks like a confusing spectacle.

On 2009-03-19, Don <dwzimm[at]telus.net> wrote:
- quote -

I agree that it is difficult to put in practice.

I think that for times like this, it should be "buy" and not just
hold. I personally plan to hold what I bought, until prices get too
high again. Then I will start selling. And, by the way, I am
underwater on most things that I bought over the last few months, with
the exception of Wells Fargo. That concerns me, but not too much.

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On 2009-03-19, Tortoise <nospam[at]sunshine.com> wrote:
- quote -

Hm, sounds like something to try.

- quote -

They only incur fees if you trade. And then, only to the extent of how
much you trade. I did nothing whatsoever in that account since
1999. The shares that I owned in 1999 is what remained there and I did
not reallocate a single penny. I intentionally allocated this account
in 1999 with the specific intent to not touch it at all, ever, for
certain personal reasons.

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On 2009-01-06 15:01:28 -0800, Igor Chudov <ichudov[at]algebra.com> said:

- quote -

Apparently,
- quote -

The "buy and hold" philosophy is difficult to put into practice,
because in bad times it has a way of turning into "buy and hold,
except, of course, for real bad times of trouble like this." And all
times of trouble somehow seem to be worse than the last one. In order
to be a true "buy and hold" investor you have to have a certain knack
for setting aside even apparently logical arguments and stay the course
no matter how bad it looks. That is not easy. For small investors it is
probably harder than giving up smoking or cutting down on cholesterol.

Igor Chudov wrote:
- quote -

With a spreadsheet it's easy as pie. Enter all of your transactions (excluding
reinvested distributions) as a single cash flow, and XIRR() will give you your
internal rate of return.

- quote -

You seem to be a value-conscious investor; don't brokerage accounts incur
fees/commissions on top of regular fund expenses?

Igor Chudov wrote:
- quote -

Following this theme though - the perhaps greater risk is assuming that
you have the ability to determine the times when there is a difference
between today's price and the asset's intrinsic value. And more than
that, assuming that you'll make the right choices at those times when
presented with obviously cheap, and obviously expensive, markets.

All this talk of Nov 21st - who bought anything on that day? I did, and
so did everyone else whose strategy, generally, involves long-term
approaches like "rebalance asset classes when they get off their
targets, even if it makes your stomach churn." To help with the latter,
I did this while looking at a small cut-out on my desk, torn from a
magazine umpteen years ago, showing the inverse historical correlation
between today's P/E and future returns.

But that was rote buying, and I'm not going to claim any special
insights, because I do rote buying at bad times too - after all that's
what the strategy requires. My hunch was that it was an unusually large
dip, but that wasn't the basis for buying.

OK so that's one type of purchaser, the other type were all the
brilliant people who are good at determining when there is a large gap
between value and price.

So...will anyone step out on a limb and say they did that? In
retrospect, it may have been the cheapest market day of the last few
decades. If you didn't call that one...well how do you have any hope of
catching a "5% mispriced market" or some similarly small gap? Seriously
- who would say, today, that they should try to determine value/price
deviations, if they missed Nov 21st, which may go down as the Big Kahuna
of value/price deviations (or not!!! - we'll only know in hindsight).

Another example - I created a spreadsheet of median-price housing data
in 2003 for my clients, pairing it with Freddie Mac data on mortgage
rates. When Case-Shiller came out I shifted to that. I did it then
because it was pretty clearly a bubble at that time, though I had no
idea of course it would keep going as far as it did. I showed that to
some people who said "my god I'd never buy into that!" I showed it to
others who said "well yeah, but as long as I can sell for a higher price
what does it matter?" and bought into investment properties that are now
deeply underwater. It was so clear it would happen based on rent vs own
and income vs. housing cost comparisons. You can lead a horse to water...

So this is an important aspect of financial planning that doesn't get
discussed enough. People make really bad decisions, saying on November
21 "I think we're at the cusp of a really big drop" (to paraphrase one
post). Buying gold after a huge gold rally. Selling stocks after a huge
drop. Buying big into international stocks after four years of 20%+
gains. Then you look at a simple, rote, buy and hold (with rebalancing)
portfolio and hey, how about that, it avoids that risk.

-Tad

On 2009-01-12, honda.lioness[at]gmail.com <honda.lioness[at]gmail.com> wrote:
- quote -

One of my picks did go bankrupt. It was not a big amount, though.

Anyway, estimating return is not very easy. Especially considering
that I have many accounts, funded at various times. But I will try to
go through my Ameritrade statements to see how much money I put into
my Ameritrade account vs. how much I have now. I also would need to
report taxes paid or credited from losses and gains. This is very
hard.

On one Vanguard Brokerage IRA account to which I did not add money
since late 1999, I had a return of approximately 61% since that
time. That is 61% total, over these years, not annual. Nothing was
added to it over these years, so annualized return is not hard to
calculate. I believe it comes to 4.9% per year. At the same time, the
total return of S&P 500 was -3.2%.

On my Ameritrade IRA account, I invested $18,000 into it from 2001
until 2008 (not counting my 2009 contribution), and on 1/1/2009 I had
$21,529. I added money throughout the years, so it is hard to compute
actual return, but I stopped contributing in 2004 until late last
year, so 13,000 out of 18,000 was invested in 2001-2004 and for 2008
it was 5,000 in last December.

If I was to report to you on 11/24/2008, prior to my late 2008
contribution, then I would tell you that my contributions were $13,000
and the value of the account was $16,109. So the return can be said
roughly 3% per year on this account, but it is harder to calculate
accurately.

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On Jan 12, 12:08 pm, Igor Chudov:
- quote -

How do you measure how well you have done picking stocks? If we are
not talking about at least 10 years of data, then I would not judge.
Excepting maybe something like a person's last five picks all went
bankrupt.

On 2009-01-07, honda.lioness[at]gmail.com <honda.lioness[at]gmail.com> wrote:
- quote -

I would agree with that.

- quote -

Yes. I am big on valuation and especially do not like paying too much
for anything. I am not actually a great stockpicker, despite some
business education, but at least I try to stay away from some obvious
junk.


- quote -

and low price

- quote -

I bought this book a few days ago. I will hopefully receive it soon.
I am 90% done with _Stocks for the Long Run_.
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Igor Chudov <ichu...[at]algebra.com> linked:
- quote -

Little observation and "attaboy" shout-out to one of our regulars:

- quote -

events like this if you're retired or close to retirement... This
turns out to be a simply brilliant suggestion.”

- quote -

avoid selling low as the way to **ensure** success. I came up with
this plan. I have around 30 years of people shooting holes in it to
refine it. The 7 years cash plan was more that the stock market can
recover in 7
years."

The conventional wisdom to have a portion of one's portfolio in high
grade bonds/CDs along with reflecting on jIM's post way back when is
what is paying for my ski lift tickets today.

On Jan 7, 11:03 am, Igor Chudov <ichu...[at]algebra.com> wrote:
Elle wrote
Igor wrote
- quote -

I think one characteristic of a timer is a tendency to think a stock
purchase was a mistake just because it went down in value in the short
run.

- quote -

I believe elsewhere in this forum you have said you look at the
soundness of the companies in general prior to making a purchase. If
so, then no, I would not call you a timer. My impression is you are
big on valuation, period. We do not see everything the same way but I
think this is a big point of overlap.

- quote -

I agree. I think where the dispute lies is in when a person overpaid.
Just because the price declines in the short term, this does not mean
a person overpaid, except in the sense that the person lost a short
term casino style gamble. One should not hit one's self up side the
head just because s/he did not get the five-year low or whatever
price. Bet on diversity and the long run, and I think all will be
fine.

- quote -

The title is _The Future for Investors : Why the Tried and the True
Triumph Over the Bold and the New_ (2005). It emphasizes valuation, so
I think you might like it. I skimmed it a few years ago and it with
SFLR and some other authors are on my recommended list. Now I want to
go read it again and see how it stands up in the fa> ce of today's
credit crisis.

On Jan 7, 10:59 am, Rich Carreiro <rlc-n...[at]rlcarr.com> wrote:
- quote -

The article cited says Stein now recommends a 50% allocation to bonds.
Generally speaking, this is what Ben Graham advocates. Is this inane?
Is it possible you yourself have a sizable high grade bond allocation?

Blanket condemnations rarely have a place anywhere. People should
either look up Stein's biography and constructively criticize specific
statements or else stay off the computer keyboard.

On 2009-01-07, honda.lioness[at]gmail.com <honda.lioness[at]gmail.com> wrote:
- quote -

What exactly do you call a "timer"?

For example, I did not buy much stocks (stock funds, that is) in my
and my wife's pension plan, in the last several years, due to what I
considered a not too attractive price.

Then when they fell by almost a factor of two, I bought them.

Does that make me a market timer, in your view? I respect your
opinion, I just want to know what you think.

If this is market timing, what is the alternative? To buy stuff
"regardless of price"?

In any case, I think that not wanting to pay too much for assets is
virtuous and market stabilizing, and willingness to overpay is
destabilizing and leads to Ben Stein's mentality.

- quote -

I think that Stein is definitely irrational, either when he bought at
the top, or when he sold at the bottom.

- quote -

Is that a different title or a different edition?
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honda.lioness[at]gmail.com writes:

- quote -

Yeah. He now writes economic nonsense in a NYT column. Felix Salmon
over at portfolio.com has a great series of posts ("Ben Strein Watch")
eviscerating Stein's inanities.

--
Rich Carreiro rlc-news[at]rlcarr.com

PeterL <po.n...[at]gmail.com> wrote:

- quote -

I trust you have googled by now. Over the decades Stein has been much
more than this.

On Jan 7, 7:10 am, Igor Chudov <ichu...[at]algebra.com> wrote:
On valuing stocks--
- quote -

If he said the above, then I would say he leans towards a timer
mentality. A lot of market corrections are based in panic which cannot
exactly be predicted. We could have had a nice soft landing with this
bubble, and Stein's portfolio would have fared better. It is really
not clear that Stein was irrational when he bought his stocks. If the
fundamentals were sound, then /for the long run/ he should be fine.

No serious diagreement with anything else you wrote. I do suggest at
least skimming Siegel's 2005 follow-up book. He amends slightly some
of what he wrote in the SFLR book.

On 2009-01-07, honda.lioness[at]gmail.com <honda.lioness[at]gmail.com> wrote:
- quote -

There is a lot of financial gurus out there who do not realize that
assets have a price and value. The value may be hard to calculate, but
it is independent of price. The value is in future earnings.

The risk of owning these assets is determined by how much you pay in
relation to that hard to calculate value. Which is to say, the risk is
in paying too much of price in relation to value.

So if Ben Stein was a little more careful in stating what he stated,
he would have said "Buy and hold did not make sense then, because I
paid too much for assets".

- quote -

My own reasoning is that when you buy stocks, you pay for earnings, so
if you pay little enough, you will come out ahead.

I am finishing up reading the book _Stocks for the Long Run_ and find
that it is not as bad as I thought. It does talk about future returns
being inversely related to P/E.

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