"Will" <westes-usc[at]noemail.nospam> wrote:

- quote -

I assume that, if the 2009 bonds default, the 2013 bonds will at the same time.
Regardless, any bond due later will have a higher risk of default than one due
earlier. There is more time for things to go wrong.
-- Doug

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"Will Trice" <not[at]monitored.net> wrote in message
newsLednVTbx4HllXHVnZ2dnUVZ_rPinZ2d[at]comcast.com...
- quote -

I was being sloppy with words, and I apologize. I meant to say that the
2009 bonds appear to have relatively low yield to maturity compared to the
2013 bonds. The 2013 bonds trade like there is a significant chance of
default at 30% YTM (and default risk is high for sure). The 2009 bonds
trade with around a 15% YTM, which suggests a much more moderate default
risk, but actually I doubt that is true. It's the 2009 bonds that have the
greatest chance for a default since the company cannot raise cash in the
current environment.

--
Will

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Will wrote:
- quote -

This sounds like you're suggesting that the bond price should go *up*
when the risk of default goes up. I don't trade bonds but this doesn't
make sense to me.

-The Other Will

william dot trice at ngc dot com

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Given that Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) may have trouble paying back the face
value of the bonds due in 2009, I'm wondering why they are not trading at
distressed prices already. Instead, what I see is that they have not
traded at all since mid September, and even then at prices way below what I
would expect something this risky to trade for. Any ideas on why there is
no trading in that bond and why the trade prices don't reflect possible
default?

--
Will

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