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  #72  
Old 09-04-2008, 04:25 PM
Augustine
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Default Re: Inflation

On Sep 3, 11:15*am, bo peep <cowartmi...[at]yahoo.com> wrote:
- quote -

> Anyone who can afford a cab can have a phone. Get a Tracfone for $10
> and about $7 to $8/month for service. No credit check required - you
> don't even have to identify yourself to the company.


Better yet, pre-paid phones can be got virtually for free. Sort of,
it's about $20 for a phone with 20min, but more minutes can be
purchased for as little as 10c/min.

HTH

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  #71  
Old 09-03-2008, 09:53 PM
Elizabeth Richardson
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Default Re: Inflation


"bo peep" <cowartmisc1[at]yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:a262363e-a853-4874-8918-3fd2f85903d3[at]m44g2000hsc.googlegroups.com...
- quote -

> On Aug 27, 6:38 pm, "Elizabeth Richardson" <erich...[at]worldnet.att.net> wrote:
> > she can't call a cab to get to the doctor
> > because she has no phone.

> Anyone who can afford a cab can have a phone. Get a Tracfone for $10
> and about $7 to $8/month for service.


Over snipped. She doesn't have to pay for the cab, medicaid will pay her
transportation.

Elizabeth Richardson

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  #70  
Old 09-03-2008, 04:15 PM
bo peep
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Default Re: Inflation

On Aug 27, 6:38*pm, "Elizabeth Richardson" <erich...[at]worldnet.att.netwrote:
- quote -

> she can't call a cab to get to the doctor
> because she has no phone.


Anyone who can afford a cab can have a phone. Get a Tracfone for $10
and about $7 to $8/month for service. No credit check required - you
don't even have to identify yourself to the company.

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  #69  
Old 08-28-2008, 10:56 PM
Douglas Johnson
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Default Re: Inflation

joetaxpayer <joetaxpayer[at]nospam.com> wrote:

- quote -

> I get John's point. One can burn through $10K's in the things he
> mentions, water/AC/rent, etc, and my comparison using median income is
> not quite apples to apples. While I have the option to liquidate and
> choose to live in the proverbial van by the river, that's not likely to
> happen, and I may not actually be living 100X the quality of life
> despite having 100X the income of the $850/yr world median person I
> reference.


Of course you aren't. The theory of marginal utility says that the first bowl
of ice cream tastes better than the second, which tastes better than the third.

But, so what? You are leading a much, much better life than our goat herding
friend. Not necessarily happier, but better in every material regard. Try
visiting the third world, especially outside the cities. No safe drinking
water. A poor harvest means serious hunger. Medical care is a two day walk
away. Electricity? You've got to be joking. People can't afford the fuel to
boil the water to keep the kids from dying of dysentery.

When Warren Buffett is asked for the reasons for his success, he always starts
out "I was born in the United States." I've been trying for a couple of days
now to figure out how to reply to John's post and this is the mildest I've been
able to manage. If you want appreciate what we've got, volunteer overseas for a
third world relief agency. That'll work for sure.

-- Doug

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  #68  
Old 08-28-2008, 09:49 PM
Will Trice
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Default Re: Inflation

joetaxpayer wrote:

- quote -

> I get John's point. One can burn through $10K's in the things he
> mentions, water/AC/rent, etc, and my comparison using median income is
> not quite apples to apples. While I have the option to liquidate and
> choose to live in the proverbial van by the river, that's not likely to
> happen, and I may not actually be living 100X the quality of life
> despite having 100X the income of the $850/yr world median person I
> reference.


That's not very rational. If you're not getting your money's worth,
shouldn't you go where you will? I know that may not be possible for
the goat herder, but I'm guessing it is for you.

-Will

william dot trice at ngc dot com

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  #67  
Old 08-28-2008, 12:38 AM
Elizabeth Richardson
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Default Re: Inflation


"Will Trice" <not[at]monitored.net> wrote in message
news:wL-dnWVybJwBeyjVnZ2dnUVZ_obinZ2d[at]comcast.com...

- quote -

> > And if our goat hearder gets
> > health care as a human right, and I cannot afford health coverage,
> > then tell me who is better off in the long run?

> So the availability of affordable health insurance is your only criteria
> for quality of life?


Well, this has certainly gotten off the Inflation topic, but I'll chime in
here and offer that even if you have health insurance but have no access to
medical care, that health insurance is a waste of good money. The goat
herder would be a prime example, but so, too, is the welfare recipient on
medicaid who can't get to pre-natal care because the buses don't come
anywhere near where she lives and she can't call a cab to get to the doctor
because she has no phone. Financial planning, of course, does not exist for
those so situated, inflation or not.

Elizabeth Richardson

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  #66  
Old 08-28-2008, 12:38 AM
joetaxpayer
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Default Re: Inflation



Will Trice wrote:

- quote -

> John A. Weeks III wrote:
> > Bottom line after all this rambling is that comparing median
> > incomes is bogus. Net profit is what counts. If I spend all
> > my money on modern living, and put nothing away, I am far worse
> > off than a 3rd world goat hearder who lives a semi-nomadic life,
> > but is able to feed their family and increase the size of their
> > heard by a few goats each year. And if our goat hearder gets
> > health care as a human right, and I cannot afford health coverage,
> > then tell me who is better off in the long run?

> So the availability of affordable health insurance is your only criteria
> for quality of life?
> -Will


I get John's point. One can burn through $10K's in the things he
mentions, water/AC/rent, etc, and my comparison using median income is
not quite apples to apples. While I have the option to liquidate and
choose to live in the proverbial van by the river, that's not likely to
happen, and I may not actually be living 100X the quality of life
despite having 100X the income of the $850/yr world median person I
reference.

Joe

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  #65  
Old 08-27-2008, 11:43 PM
Will Trice
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Default Re: Inflation

John A. Weeks III wrote:

- quote -

> Bottom line after all this rambling is that comparing median
> incomes is bogus. Net profit is what counts. If I spend all
> my money on modern living, and put nothing away, I am far worse
> off than a 3rd world goat hearder who lives a semi-nomadic life,
> but is able to feed their family and increase the size of their
> heard by a few goats each year. And if our goat hearder gets
> health care as a human right, and I cannot afford health coverage,
> then tell me who is better off in the long run?


So the availability of affordable health insurance is your only criteria
for quality of life?

-Will

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  #64  
Old 08-27-2008, 11:07 PM
Don
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Default Re: Inflation

On 2008-08-27 13:06:53 -0700, "Elle" <honda.lioness[at]gmail.com> said:

- quote -

> "Elizabeth Richardson" <erichktn[at]worldnet.att.net> wrote.
> For many folks I think much is to be said for the simple
> life. I think it can give one an appreciation of what is
> really meaningful for filling one's time. Unencumbered is a
> good way to put it. No (or fewer) chains, and less worries
> about inflation etc., if only because one knows how to
> survive at the most immediate level, as opposed to tarrying
> over one's portfolio and counting on investments to survive.



Many wealthy people are able to live a "simple" life without
encumberances. Their money pays for other people to take care of the
usual encumberances and protect them from the stresses that otherwise
would make life complicated. I am not talking about people who have
become wealthy because they have worked hard in business all their
lives and profited from investments. They can be under a lot of stress.
I mean peole with inherited wealth, the ones who never have to worry
about working or investing or much of anything else except maybe hiring
someone to take care of unpleasant tasks. I suspect the hippies with
the back-to-nature life style on the farm or in the commune would
really like to be one of those favored ones, but setttle for at least
getting away from the rat race insofar as it is possible to do so with
little or no money.

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  #63  
Old 08-27-2008, 10:31 PM
Don
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Default Re: Inflation

On 2008-08-26 12:00:21 -0700, Ignoramus29035
<ignoramus29035[at]NOSPAM.29035.invalid> said:

- quote -

> Good point, but moderate inflation means gradual loss of money. So if
> one notices it half a year late and takes measures, it is still
> worthwhile to take them.


Agreed. Iinflation protection should be a basic part of any financial
plan for anybody at any time. Better late than never. But I would not
count on any "timing" strategy of shifting money around depending on
the inflation statistics.

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  #62  
Old 08-27-2008, 08:06 PM
Elle
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Default Re: Inflation

"Elizabeth Richardson" <erichktn[at]worldnet.att.net> wrote
- quote -

> Comment: a friend of mine, who resides in Virginia, lives
> without electricity and running water. She lives on a
> communal farm and there are others similarly unencumbered.
> She has a job, she does drive a car, they use propane for
> cooking. She has chosen to live thusly for over 16 years.


For many folks I think much is to be said for the simple
life. I think it can give one an appreciation of what is
really meaningful for filling one's time. Unencumbered is a
good way to put it. No (or fewer) chains, and less worries
about inflation etc., if only because one knows how to
survive at the most immediate level, as opposed to tarrying
over one's portfolio and counting on investments to survive.

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  #61  
Old 08-27-2008, 07:08 PM
Elizabeth Richardson
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Default Re: Inflation


"John A. Weeks III" <john[at]johnweeks.com> wrote in message news:john-
- quote -

> Just to wake up in the morning, in the US, I have to have running
> water, hot water, electricity to make the water, I have to pay a
> sewer connection fee, pay for expensive plumbing,


Comment: a friend of mine, who resides in Virginia, lives without
electricity and running water. She lives on a communal farm and there are
others similarly unencumbered. She has a job, she does drive a car, they use
propane for cooking. She has chosen to live thusly for over 16 years. We're
not talking about a homeless person, or someone others might call down on
their luck. I'm simply pointing out that running hot water and electricity
are not required living accoutrements in the US (though living like that
would not be my choice!).

Elizabeth Richardson

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  #60  
Old 08-27-2008, 05:34 PM
John A. Weeks III
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Default Re: Inflation

In article <Y4adneUMlKJD4CjVnZ2dnUVZ_uWdnZ2d[at]comcast.com> ,
joetaxpayer <joetaxpayer[at]nospam.com> wrote:

- quote -

> TB wrote:
> > OK then how about a more global perspective? The 2007 Capgemini/Merrill
> > Lynch Worldwide Wealth Report estimates that there were only 9.5 million
> > millionaires on the entire planet in 2006.

> This may be going off topic, forgive me, but to this point, there is a
> web site http://www.globalrichlist.com/ which tells you where you stand
> on a worldwide scale. $48000 is median in the US, right? On a world
> scale it's the top 1%. Half the world's population lives on less than
> $850/yr. This may not be relevant to how we plan our finances here, but
> it does offer one an interesting perspective.


It would be just as interesting to figure the cost of government in
each of these places, and the cost to wake up in the morning. For
example, if I went down to city hall and proped up two sheets of
plywood and tied a sheet of corrugated steel to the top to build a
typical 3rd world house, I'd be arrested in short order and hauled
off to jail. Dittos if I went to use the gutter as a bathroom.

Just to wake up in the morning, in the US, I have to have running
water, hot water, electricity to make the water, I have to pay a
sewer connection fee, pay for expensive plumbing, I have to have
walls and roofs that meet exoitc building codes, and I have to
pay taxes on each of these items, plus pay a general property
tax just for occupying a spot on the planet. It probably costs
me $750 a month just to wake up, and kick in another $750 because
I choose to live in a nice house.

Then there is food. I live in a condo, so no garden, and I live
in a city where farm animals are not allowed. It isn't legal to
collect firewood, and there is no cattle dung within walking
distance. That forces me to buy corporate food, and use electric
appliances to heat it up. Yet more costs, and more taxes on the
power, plus I have to pay to have the trash hauled away.

There is a river between my city and where I work. All the
bridges are freeway bridges and do not allow people to walk
or use scooters. Public transit mostly goes to the downtowns,
and goes nowhere near the industrial district where I work.
As a result, if I want that income, I have to have a car, pay
taxes on the car, buy fuel, pay all kinds of fuel taxes,
license fees, and more environmental fees on the repairs.
When I do get my pay check, more than 50% is deducted for taxes,
medicare, welfare, social security, union dues, and all kinds
of silly fees. I max out my retirement, so what starts as a
nice paycheck ends up being a drib or a drab of money.

Bottom line after all this rambling is that comparing median
incomes is bogus. Net profit is what counts. If I spend all
my money on modern living, and put nothing away, I am far worse
off than a 3rd world goat hearder who lives a semi-nomadic life,
but is able to feed their family and increase the size of their
heard by a few goats each year. And if our goat hearder gets
health care as a human right, and I cannot afford health coverage,
then tell me who is better off in the long run?

-john-

--
================================================== ====================
John A. Weeks III 612-720-2854 john[at]johnweeks.com
Newave Communications http://www.johnweeks.com
================================================== ====================

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  #59  
Old 08-27-2008, 04:17 PM
joetaxpayer
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Default Re: Inflation



TB wrote:

- quote -

> OK then how about a more global perspective? The 2007 Capgemini/Merrill
> Lynch Worldwide Wealth Report estimates that there were only 9.5 million
> millionaires on the entire planet in 2006.


This may be going off topic, forgive me, but to this point, there is a
web site http://www.globalrichlist.com/ which tells you where you stand
on a worldwide scale. $48000 is median in the US, right? On a world
scale it's the top 1%. Half the world's population lives on less than
$850/yr. This may not be relevant to how we plan our finances here, but
it does offer one an interesting perspective.

Joe

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  #58  
Old 08-27-2008, 03:54 PM
TB
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Default Re: Inflation

Ignoramus29035 wrote:
- quote -

> On 2008-08-21, Tad Borek <borekfm[at]pacbell.net> wrote:
> > I have to ask, why do you think $1M[at]37 is "nothing special"?

> I just do not feel that it is a lot of money or that I could afford
> something extravagant without negatively impacting other priorities.


OK then how about a more global perspective? The 2007 Capgemini/Merrill
Lynch Worldwide Wealth Report estimates that there were only 9.5 million
millionaires on the entire planet in 2006. They define this as $1M
excluding principal residence so you're not quite there yet, but you're
well on your way given that you're only 37.

Or put another way, 99.99985% of the earth's population has less than
$1M and somehow they are able to scrape by. And if high inflation is
going to threaten your lifestyle, think of the effect it's going to have
on those with so much less.

In that context, the contention that one needs substantially more than
$1M in today's dollars to retire, or even lead an enjoyable lifestyle
during one's working life, is absurd. It means one has overly
pessimistic views of the long-term value of financial assets, or
extremely high expectations for consumption. Figuring out which one is
the issue might help point to a solution...but some appreciation for
one's financial status is a good start.

-Tad

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  #57  
Old 08-27-2008, 03:54 PM
Douglas Johnson
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Default Re: Inflation

Michael <gene.f[at]verizon.net> wrote:

- quote -

> I'm surprised by the stated 4% withdrawal rule of thumb. I thought 6%
> was a conservative enough estimate to be realistic. Not so?


Like a lot of things in retirement planning, it depends on how long you are
going to live. But 6% is definitely on the high side. Take a look at:
http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/safewith.html for an overview and references
to more detailed studies. In particular, look at the Trinity Study.

-- Doug

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  #56  
Old 08-27-2008, 03:00 PM
Will Trice
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Posts: n/a
Default Re: Inflation

Elle wrote:

- quote -

> That BH is less risky than the S&P 500 is not clear to me.
> Maybe Will Trice or someone else can post some meaningful
> numbers to compare the two.


I wouldn't dare try to come up with a number that would describe risk to
your satisfaction...

-Will

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  #55  
Old 08-27-2008, 02:07 PM
BreadWithSpam@fractious.net
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Default Re: Inflation

Michael <gene.f[at]verizon.net> writes:

- quote -

> > It is worth noting that, to retire on a middle-class income, say
> > $40K a year, you need a $1M in earning assets or the equivalent in
> > annuities, such as pensions or social security. This by our 4%
> > withdrawal rule of thumb.


> I'm surprised by the stated 4% withdrawal rule of thumb. I thought
> 6% was a conservative enough estimate to be realistic. Not so?


6% is pretty aggressive, and if it's 6% + inflation adjustments,
it's highly likely to fail (where "fail" means you run out of
money before you're ready to).

Note that a 100% equity portfolio over much of the last
century returned only about 7% after inflation. And that
was with a lot of volatility along the way. A balanced
portfolio, to temper the volatility, paid less. But such
a balanced portfolio may be steady enough to support those
payouts. Pulling a fixed (plus inflation) percentage out
each year can get you in a lot of trouble if you have
a few big down years early on. Timing matters a lot in
when there is volatility. Starting at 6% right when the
market takes off may look conservative. Starting at 6%, say,
in 1973 or in 2002, not so much. Since I don't know if we're
poised for another 2002 (well, we're on our way) or
if we're poised for another 1975/6, I'd weigh out
carefully what the consequences of being wrong are.

If you use a more flexible plan - pull out a fixed percentage
of your portfolio - and thereby pull out *less* in/after
down years - you might be able to sustain a slightly higher
extraction rate and still be reasonably certain that you
will be able to pull out enough on an ongoing basis to
sustain your cost of living.

Note that all such "rules" of how to do this need to
be able to be adjusted along the way, since they all
are based on projections and estimates into the future.


--
Plain Bread alone for e-mail, thanks. The rest gets trashed.
No HTML in E-Mail! -- http://www.expita.com/nomime.html
Are you posting responses that are easy for others to follow?
http://www.greenend.org.uk/rjk/2000/06/14/quoting

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  #54  
Old 08-27-2008, 09:06 AM
Michael
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Default Re: Inflation

- quote -

> It is worth noting that, to retire on a middle-class income, say $40K a year,
> you need a $1M in earning assets or the equivalent in annuities, such as
> pensions or social security. This by our 4% withdrawal rule of thumb.
> I'm surprised by the stated 4% withdrawal rule of thumb. I thought 6%
> was a conservative enough estimate to be realistic. Not so?


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  #53  
Old 08-26-2008, 11:52 PM
BreadWithSpam@fractious.net
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Default Re: Berkshire as a single-stock (was Re: Inflation)

Will Trice <not[at]monitored.net> writes:
- quote -

> BreadWithSpam[at]fractious.net wrote:
> > Two things - as we've discussed here so many times before,
> > Buffet himself suggests massive diversification and indexing
> > for those who don't have the time or knowledge or skills to
> > manage active, more concentrated portfolios.

> I don't know, I've heard (on CNBC) Buffett say to just go out and buy
> an S&P 500 index fund. Is that what you meant by massive
> diversification?


Precisely. We've discussed it here before, but the basic
jist is that he acknowledges that the ability and expertise
to pick stocks is not very common, and that even those who
can do it spend a lot of time doing it. Folks who have
neither the expertise, ability or time for it should just
buy the whole market. No need to pick stocks.

He's even put his money where his mouth is - he recently
made a bet with some hedge fund managers that an index
fund will beat their fund of hedge funds over a ten year
period. See <http://www.longbets.org/> or any of the
articles easily found on Google such as
<http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/04/news...tune/index.htm
Note that Buffett does not recommend index funds for
everyone. Just for many, perhaps most.

This is a good short article on Buffett's comments -
do look at the note attached at the bottom, though,
from Jeff Ptak at Morningstar:

<http://www.indexuniverse.com/blog/31...dex-funds.html
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