FA <fermionace[at]gmail.com> writes:

- quote -

Muni bond funds are down because bonds are like equities in that their
value rises and falls with supply and demand. The ongoing problems in
the general credit/financial markets have meant that a lot of
investors have panicked and are putting their money into "safe"
investments like cash or treasury bonds instead of muni or corporate
bonds, so with less demand, muni bond prices are down, while treasury
bonds are now overpriced. Also, because of the shakeups among bond
insurers, insured muni bonds are taking an especially big hit. Muni
bonds are not risk-free by any means; besides the values going up and
down with the market, and there is also a risk of default. OTOH, most
muni bonds are backed by authorities that can raise taxes to cover
their debt obligations, just like federal government bonds, so it's
questionable whether bond insurance even really buys you much for
munis; the default rates for munis are historically very low. It
would be more of a concern if you were investing in individual bonds,
but with a bond fund, I pretty much figure that (a) the managers are
pros who can do a better job than I can at evaluating the credit risks
and (b) the credit risks are mitigated by holding a diversified
portfolio of bonds.

Anyway, the good news about muni bond prices being down now is that this
means you can buy them "on sale"; yields are high, and the bond values are
more likely to go up than down when the credit crunch eases.

FWIW, I have most of my bond allocation in VMATX -- but this is money
I have no immediate need for, and I have enough savings overall that
it isn't going to kill me if I lose money on my bond investments. If
you're going to lose sleep worrying about getting back every cent of
your $10,000, you're better off sticking with a FDIC-insured savings
account or CD.

-Sandra the cynic

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Background: I live and work in Massachusetts. I am in the 25% federal
marginal tax bracket, and Massachusetts taxes wages, interest,
dividend, and long-term capital gains at 5.3%, and short-term capital
gains at 12%.

I have about $10,000 which is currently in a credit union money market
account earning 1.65% APY interest. I see that I can do better with a
savings account at an online bank such as ING Direct (3%) or HSBC
Direct (3.5%). I have also been looking into municipal bond and money
market mutual funds, and it looks like I have three choices between
Vanguard and Fidelity for my state: VMATX (muni bond fund), FDMMX
(muni bond fund), FDMXX (muni money market fund). I've been having
some difficulty comparing these three funds with the online tools
available at vanguard.com, fidelity.com, and finance.google.com.
According to fincalc.com (love the site, saw it mentioned here), 3%
taxable returns are equivalent to about 2.13% non-taxable returns in
my tax situation.

I should not need the $10,000 or its proceeds for a few years (2+ at
the earliest, 5+ more likely). It looks like the online savings
accounts are pretty close to FDMXX in after-tax returns right now, and
they are FDIC insured. The other two funds look like they might have
a chance at slightly better returns, but they appear to be down for
the year so far (bond funds baffle me; I would expect losses to come
from defaults and defaults to be extremely rare for municipalities).
Am I somehow misinterpreting the muni bond fund returns? Or should I
just stay with savings accounts (or possibly CDs if I can find better
rates) for now?

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MODERATORS: Posting to misc.invest.financial-plan", a weekly post now on the
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