Yield curve methodology may not have
been application for the past 15 years or so.
The 10 and 30 year bond rates are no longer
strongly affected by any actions of the US
government and have been held ow over that
period. Theres huge international and domestic
demand for that kind of bond which keeps rates low.
This despite all the sniping about the quality of
the US dollar. Maybe the declining dollar and
inflation will eventually force these rates up.

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"Mark Bole" <makbo[at]pacbell.net> wrote
- quote -

According to the following two sites, for about two months
now the curve has clearly been not inverted:

http://www.smartmoney.com/onebond/in...ory=yieldcurve

http://www.investinginbonds.com/

Go back to March, and the curve becomes somewhat anomalous
again.

- quote -

I think the theory that an inverted yield curve precedes a
recession relies somewhat on numerology. Or one could say it
is economics, so the rules are not hard and fast.

- quote -

The talk is that the Fed will raise rates again "soon" to
try to prevent further inflation. I think I would wait until
five year rates were back up to at least 5%. Or buy really
short term CDs. Or do the ladder (say six-month rungs,
longest, five years), since historically, the curve flattens
out again beyond five years.

If you can stand the risk, yields on some conservative
stocks look pretty good, with many having a nice rate of
increase.

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Mark Bole <makbo[at]pacbell.net> wrote:

- quote -

The yield curve is no longer inverted see:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/yieldcurve.html

- quote -

It kind of depends on whether you think we are in a recession or not. But we
are certainly in a significant slow down, so I'd say the inverted yield curve
scored another prediction success.
-- Doug

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The phrase in the subject line used to come up in this group fairly
often over the last few years, I haven't seen it lately.

Not having cracked open an economics textbook in decades, I'm wondering,
first: are we no longer in that situation? Anecdotally, I see more bank
ads these days with higher CD rates for longer terms.

Second, was the inverted yield curve of the recent past truly the
indicator it was thought to be (recession, or whatever)?

It's been a long time since I've had to even think about putting cash in
a CD with a term longer than 18 months, I'm kinda rusty...

-Mark Bole

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