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#6
05-03-2007, 10:32 AM
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 Re: How about this investment? $200 that you live to 100 "Don" <dwzimm[at]telus.net> wrote in message news:di8_h.101$Vi6.10[at]edtnps82... - quote - > "spasmous" <spasmous[at]gmail.com> wrote in message
I bet some of the guys who would make that bet with you would make SURE you> news:1178070674.517794.256410[at]y80g2000hsf.googlegroups.com... > > A man aged 90 bet $200 that he'd live to 100, then did and won $50k. > > What if I bet $100k (my entire net worth) that I'd live to 59 1/2 > > rather than put money in my 401k...? You think I'd get good odds? I > > need 10-to-1 or better. > I would bet 10 to 1 that the guy who took your bet would never pay you a > dime even if you did live to 59 1/2. didn't live to 59 1/2. |
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#5
05-02-2007, 10:50 PM
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| Re: How about this investment? $200 that you live to 100 On May 2, 4:02 am, spasmous <spasm...[at]gmail.com> wrote: - quote - > A man aged 90 bet $200 that he'd live to 100, then did and won $50k.
To give you odds, I need to know your current age.> What if I bet $100k (my entire net worth) that I'd live to 59 1/2 > rather than put money in my 401k...? You think I'd get good odds? I > need 10-to-1 or better. Dave |
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#4
05-02-2007, 10:30 PM
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| Re: How about this investment? $200 that you live to 100 "spasmous" <spasmous[at]gmail.com> wrote in message news:1178070674.517794.256410[at]y80g2000hsf.googlegroups.com... - quote - > A man aged 90 bet $200 that he'd live to 100, then did and won $50k.
I would bet 10 to 1 that the guy who took your bet would never pay you a> What if I bet $100k (my entire net worth) that I'd live to 59 1/2 > rather than put money in my 401k...? You think I'd get good odds? I > need 10-to-1 or better. dime even if you did live to 59 1/2. |
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#3
05-02-2007, 10:29 PM
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| Re: How about this investment? $200 that you live to 100 "spasmous" <spasmous[at]gmail.com> wrote in message news:1178070674.517794.256410[at]y80g2000hsf.googlegroups.com... - quote - > A man aged 90 bet $200 that he'd live to 100, then did and won $50k. > What if I bet $100k (my entire net worth) that I'd live to 59 1/2 > rather than put money in my 401k...? You think I'd get good odds? I > need 10-to-1 or better. |
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#2
05-02-2007, 04:05 PM
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| Re: How about this investment? $200 that you live to 100 On May 2, 8:48 am, Dave Dodson <dave_and_da...[at]Juno.com> wrote: - quote - > On May 2, 8:27 am, kastnna <kast...[at]auburnalum.org> wrote:
Oh yeah, my bad. That is a pretty good bet (250-to-1)!> > On May 2, 4:02 am, spasmous <spasm...[at]gmail.com> wrote: > > > A man aged 90 bet $200 that he'd live to 100, then did and won $50k. > > By the by, the old guy got screwed. $50k on $200k is a 1-to-4 payout. > Oops. The OP said $200, not $200k. That does make it a pretty good > return on investment: 50000/200 = 25,000%. > Dave |
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#1
05-02-2007, 01:48 PM
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| Re: How about this investment? $200 that you live to 100 On May 2, 8:27 am, kastnna <kast...[at]auburnalum.org> wrote: - quote - > On May 2, 4:02 am, spasmous <spasm...[at]gmail.com> wrote:
Oops. The OP said $200, not $200k. That does make it a pretty good> > A man aged 90 bet $200 that he'd live to 100, then did and won $50k. > By the by, the old guy got screwed. $50k on $200k is a 1-to-4 payout. return on investment: 50000/200 = 25,000%. Dave |
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05-02-2007, 01:27 PM
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| Re: How about this investment? $200 that you live to 100 On May 2, 4:02 am, spasmous <spasm...[at]gmail.com> wrote: - quote - > A man aged 90 bet $200 that he'd live to 100, then did and won $50k.
I am hoping your joking, but regardless you would never get 10 to 1> What if I bet $100k (my entire net worth) that I'd live to 59 1/2 > rather than put money in my 401k...? You think I'd get good odds? I > need 10-to-1 or better. odds from anybody that can do math. That implies that to break even the house would require that only 9% of the population to live to age 59.5 Suppose 11 people make that bet: 10 die, and 1 makes it (9% survival rate). The house has paid out $1M and taken in $1M (10x $100k). Far more than 9% of the population will make it to 59.5. If 50% of the US population reaches their mid-80s (a fact) then I'm speculating that 75% or so reach 59 1/2. The breakeven odds on those assumptions is a 1-to-3 payoff ($33k return on a $100k bet). By the by, the old guy got screwed. $50k on $200k is a 1-to-4 payout. Even if only 1 out of 5 bettors aged 90 died before 100, they house would break even. However, only 50% of them will statistically live to age 94 (I wonder if they gave him a medical exam beforehand?). If enough people made that bet to allow the law of large numbers to play out, the house would make a killing. |
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#-1
05-02-2007, 09:02 AM
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| How about this investment? $200 that you live to 100 A man aged 90 bet $200 that he'd live to 100, then did and won $50k. What if I bet $100k (my entire net worth) that I'd live to 59 1/2 rather than put money in my 401k...? You think I'd get good odds? I need 10-to-1 or better. |
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| $200, 100, investment, live |
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