JD wrote:

- quote -

No, and I think I'll pass. I recall the titles "The Great Depression of
1990" and "Surviving the Great Depression of 1990" by Ravi Batra. (By
the way, Batra was no idiot, his writings won may awards and he is well
respected in the field.) When 1990 came and went, he published "Stock
Market Crashes of 1998 and 1999." I think books like this are a
distraction from one's goals. 1999 was the best year I ever experienced,
both in dollar terms as well as percent. Had I bailed out based on one
author's hypothesis, and then jumped back in in 2000 fearing the market
was still on a hot streak, I'd be in a bad way.
Remember, it takes two right decisions to time the market, the right
time to get out and then get back in before the market has gone up
beyond where you got out the first time. There are studies that conclude
"If you were out the top X days (usually 20 or so) in the last 10 years,
your return would not be 10% on average, but 4-5%." Indeed if you were
out on the worst X days, you'd pump up your returns, but I doubt any
poster here could pull that off.

BTW, there is such high correlation among markets that if the US does
enter a bear market as the author suggests, I doubt Europe will be a
safe place to hide. Being diversified is always a good idea though.
JOE

anyone else reading peter schiff? have pondered moving all us investment funds into
european/asian funds

for a really gloomy outlook, see http://bullnotbull.com/archive/three-bears-2.html

A recession is clearly coming, but Schiff only hints at systemic and social collapse
by giving advice on how to protect your assets from such a possibility (p.249):
Social unrest caused by deprivation on a massive scale can produce violence and
anarchy [but it is beyond the scope of this book to examine all such possibilities].
What extreme measures the federal government might take in the name of national
economic necessity is also anyone's guess, but capital controls and confiscation of
assets, combined with legal authority certainly have precedent in other democracies
under comparable pressure. Since the US government seems to have no qualms about
violating our individual liberties during times of apparent economic prosperity -- the
US Patriot Act being only one example -- imagine how much more draconian will be the
measures during the economic collapse that awaits.


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