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  #8  
Old 03-02-2007, 09:21 PM
Elle
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Default Stocks Net 10% from Feb 06-Feb 07 [was Re: Stocks have worst day since 9/11 attacks]

I saw a few media articles with the headline decrying the
decline the other day. "News" mongers, all!

Consistent with others' observations, I revised the subject
line. The ten percent gain reflects S&P 500 with dividend.

Elle
In it for the long run. I have faith the world's population
will always be consumers, and companies one way or another
will always pop up to feed consumers and so need folks like
you and me to own them.

  #7  
Old 03-01-2007, 11:40 AM
darkness39@yahoo.com
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Default Re: Stocks have worst day since 9/11 attacks

On Mar 1, 12:23 am, "The Henchman"
<hey...[at]isforhorses.com.easynews.com> wrote:


- quote -

> In the next 30 years I am sure I will be in this position again and I will
> keep cash on hand for such times to buy.
> As a brand new investor I was pleased with myself I was very calm and how I
> analyzed my holdings during the drop and tried to recognize if this was a
> time to incrementally buy some more.
> I am also very relieved that a correction has taken place. Much better than
> the drip drip drip of a trickling downward trend I would think.


It's a good argument for a constant, per month, investment scheme,
rather than trying to 'time the dips'.

I don't have the data to hand, but the impact over the last 25 years
of missing the 40 best days in the markets, is something to halve your
overall return. 40 days, in over 5000 trading days, cuts your return
pa by something like 6%.

Yesterday might have been the signal for a new bear market, or it
might have been simply a small correction.

My own view is we'll keep having this upward trend, with jumpy days
when the market drops.

And then one day we'll hit an iceberg-- it might be a hedge fund
blowing up on mortgage backed securities, causing the housing market
to freeze, it might be the collapse of an LBO (the LBO of
Constellation Airlines, from memory, is thought to have timed the bear
market in 1989 or was it the Crash of '87?). Or it might be a
particularly duff IPO issue, that soars to a huge premium then falls
before issue price forever (Lastminute.com in 2000 called the peak of
the dot com boom). Or it might be a Thai bank going down in a scandal
(1997), or Russia defaulting on its debt (1998).

*that* will kick off the next bear market. When, how far and for how
long is unknowable.

  #6  
Old 03-01-2007, 11:40 AM
darkness39@yahoo.com
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Default Re: Stocks have worst day since 9/11 attacks

On Mar 1, 2:11 am, joetaxpayer <joetaxpa...[at]nospam.com> wrote:


- quote -

> You will find that over time, the noise of the market's daily moves have
> less impact on your nerves despite the larger dollars involved. Having
> one's net worth change +/- $50,000 in one day can sound unsettling, but
> time will prove that the 'other' choice is to be in something that has
> far less daily volatility, and no chance for growth. I've said before,
> one who was fully invested on Jan 1, 1987 and slept that year would have
> read the papers new years eve, Dec 31, 1987 and though the year dull, up
> 5% or so after dividends. The day to day swings are a distraction to
> what's important.
> JOE


Although someone who was fully invested on 1st Jan 2000, and slept
until March 2003 would have had a very different experience-- losing
roughly half his or her wealth (for a UK investor, still not caught
up-- although the SP500 has climbed back to its previous level (?) the
dollar has fallen quite a bit since).

Similarly in the period 1968-1979.

The best way to look at it is probably: 'great, share prices have
dropped, so my dividends (reinvested) will buy more shares, ie more
claims on the future cash flows of companies, for more money'.

Bear markets, when they come, can be long and grinding.

  #5  
Old 03-01-2007, 01:11 AM
joetaxpayer
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Default Re: Stocks have worst day since 9/11 attacks



The Henchman wrote:

- quote -

> "Mark Bole" <makbo[at]pacbell.net> wrote in message
> news:rq7Fh.4233$re4.144[at]newssvr12.news.prodigy.net...
> > You know, I heard a rumor at work today, went home later and logged in to
> > my brokerage... I've seen worse.
> > > To me, this -- tolerating today's volatility -- is the mark of the long

> > term investor.
> > > -Mark Bole

> As a brand new investor I was pleased with myself I was very calm and how I
> analyzed my holdings during the drop and tried to recognize if this was a
> time to incrementally buy some more.


You will find that over time, the noise of the market's daily moves have
less impact on your nerves despite the larger dollars involved. Having
one's net worth change +/- $50,000 in one day can sound unsettling, but
time will prove that the 'other' choice is to be in something that has
far less daily volatility, and no chance for growth. I've said before,
one who was fully invested on Jan 1, 1987 and slept that year would have
read the papers new years eve, Dec 31, 1987 and though the year dull, up
5% or so after dividends. The day to day swings are a distraction to
what's important.

JOE

  #4  
Old 02-28-2007, 11:23 PM
The Henchman
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Posts: n/a
Default Re: Stocks have worst day since 9/11 attacks


"Mark Bole" <makbo[at]pacbell.net> wrote in message
news:rq7Fh.4233$re4.144[at]newssvr12.news.prodigy.net...
- quote -

> You know, I heard a rumor at work today, went home later and logged in to
> my brokerage... I've seen worse.
> To me, this -- tolerating today's volatility -- is the mark of the long
> term investor.
> -Mark Bole


Since I have started investing, which is only about 12 months now, this is
my first ever buying opportunity. And damn it I just bought a car with cash
2 weeks ago so any money I had for a buying opportunity is tied up for a few
months.

In the next 30 years I am sure I will be in this position again and I will
keep cash on hand for such times to buy.

As a brand new investor I was pleased with myself I was very calm and how I
analyzed my holdings during the drop and tried to recognize if this was a
time to incrementally buy some more.

I am also very relieved that a correction has taken place. Much better than
the drip drip drip of a trickling downward trend I would think.

  #3  
Old 02-28-2007, 12:17 PM
darkness39@yahoo.com
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Posts: n/a
Default Re: Stocks have worst day since 9/11 attacks

On Feb 28, 9:57 am, "Andrew Koenig" <a...[at]acm.org> wrote:
- quote -

> "Mark Bole" <m...[at]pacbell.net> wrote in message
> news:rq7Fh.4233$re4.144[at]newssvr12.news.prodigy.net...
> > You know, I heard a rumor at work today, went home later and logged in to
> > my brokerage... I've seen worse.
> > To me, this -- tolerating today's volatility -- is the mark of the long
> > term investor.

> Yeah, my first thought was that I'm still underweight in emerging markets
> compared to my long-term plan...


My own view is that there is lots of pain yet to be taken in EM,
notably in BRIC (Brasil Russia China India) but also Hungary, Turkey
and possibly Argentina and Mexico. Indonesia perhaps as well. Russia
will hold up as long as commodity prices do, ditto Brasil.

India in particular looking like a classic 'bubble' market.

By contrast, South Korea looks relatively cheap, and there may be
other 'cheap' markets-- Taiwan perhaps?

  #2  
Old 02-28-2007, 08:57 AM
Andrew Koenig
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Posts: n/a
Default Re: Stocks have worst day since 9/11 attacks

"Mark Bole" <makbo[at]pacbell.net> wrote in message
news:rq7Fh.4233$re4.144[at]newssvr12.news.prodigy.net...

- quote -

> You know, I heard a rumor at work today, went home later and logged in to
> my brokerage... I've seen worse.
> To me, this -- tolerating today's volatility -- is the mark of the long
> term investor.


Yeah, my first thought was that I'm still underweight in emerging markets
compared to my long-term plan...

  #1  
Old 02-28-2007, 08:57 AM
Ernie Klein
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Posts: n/a
Default Re: Stocks have worst day since 9/11 attacks

In article <rq7Fh.4233$re4.144[at]newssvr12.news.prodigy.net> ,
Mark Bole <makbo[at]pacbell.net> wrote:

- quote -

> You know, I heard a rumor at work today, went home later and logged in
> to my brokerage... I've seen worse.
> To me, this -- tolerating today's volatility -- is the mark of the long
> term investor.


Yep. I lost $21K today - two steps forward one backwards - I'm still
about $200K over what I was this time last year

--
-Ernie-

 
Old 02-28-2007, 04:12 AM
Elizabeth Richardson
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Posts: n/a
Default Re: Stocks have worst day since 9/11 attacks

- quote -

> To me, this -- tolerating today's volatility -- is the mark of the long
> term investor.


You know, I was thinking today about all the recent posts re: volatility. I
was also surprised at how calm I am. In fact, I very nearly groused about no
longer being in the accumulation phase.

Elizabeth Richardson

  #-1  
Old 02-28-2007, 03:21 AM
Mark Bole
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Posts: n/a
Default Stocks have worst day since 9/11 attacks

You know, I heard a rumor at work today, went home later and logged in
to my brokerage... I've seen worse.

To me, this -- tolerating today's volatility -- is the mark of the long
term investor.

-Mark Bole

 

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