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#17
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| I don't worry too much about the interest rate risk of long term municipal bonds (LTMB), because of the possibility of tax loss harvesting. If I buy a LTMB fund and rates fall, I just keep the fund and owe no capital gains taxes (unless the fund itself realizes gains). If the fund price falls, I can sell it and have Uncle Sam take about 1/3 of the loss (it depends on one's tax bracket, and one can only deduct up to $3000 in losses against ordinary income annually, although losses can be carried over to future years). Given the tax timing option and the difficulty of timing the muni (or taxable) bond market, owning LTMB seems attractive to me in general. Bond prices tend to fall when the economy is stronger than expected, as in 1994 and 1999, and they rise when the economy is weak or (God forbid) there is a shock such as a terrorist attack. To some extent they hedge one's career risks. Stocks do not, especially if one works in the private sector. |
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#16
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| fwed1066 wrote: - quote - > The dfaus.com data was interesting. While it mentions long term returns
That's true, you don't see much other data. I have some stuff available> for 1,5, and 20 year bonds, it doesn't mention returns for 2,3, and 4 year > bonds. I can't seem to find this information anywhere on the web or > financial libraries. The Dfaus.com date also does not discuss municipal > bond returns, which I hear tend to have a steeper slope. Information on > this would be helpful for my asset allocation on the bond portion of my > portfolio. to me (I'm an advisor) but I don't know how to get it for free. For something b/t 1 & 5 year bonds you might approximate by looking at a fund or index with a duration that usually sits in that range. EG dig up one of the "1-3 year Treasury" indices. Lehman's is the basis for the iShare with ticker symbol SHY so if you do some research on that you might find some long-term historical data (not on the iShare, it's fairly new, but on the index it's based on). You'll need to find the duration associated with that index, it'd be under 2.0. But it may be a reasonable proxy for a "2-year bond" (or one & a half anyway). Next you might look at one of Vanguard's ST bond index funds which have duration in the mid 2's. It's a fund, not an index, but at least you have some longer-term data readily available. I think you'll find that the data sit neatly between 1 & 5 which is why you typically only see 1 & 5 represented. Maybe as significant, it'll be hard to invest in say 3-year Treasuries unless you manage a portfolio yourself. RE: munis...the tricky thing is the variation in tax rates and brackets over time, which will influence the spread between munis and Treasuries. Otherwise the two should mirror each other with an adjustment for taxes, if the market's working. Because tax brackets change (unpredictably and randomly) there's always going to be a layer in there that doesn't fit neatly into asset allocation theory. You need to have long-term predictions regarding the changes in future tax rates (and your own income level), and the timing of those changes, which isn't possible really. It may be better to do your asset allocation based strictly on yield-curve information, meaning you pick your allocation to bonds, generally. Then you constantly revisit your short-term bond allocation and flip between taxables and munis based on your actual tax bracket and the current yield spread (gap b/t Treasuries and munis). This is feasible because short term bonds rarely have much capital gain or loss associated with them, so it's not like stocks where you need to weigh in tax issues - and where you might need to pick your choices for the long term. It's of course a different story with long-term bonds but if you buy the DFA stuff you probably won't have any long-term bonds in your allocation. Or if you do it's munis, that fit more into a "wealth preservation" approach for a higher-wealth investor where taxes drive the investment decisions more than class-return data do. -Tad PS If you have something specific in mind I'd be happy to run some quick data for you on a 1-3 year index - send me an email. |
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#15
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| The dfaus.com data was interesting. While it mentions long term returns for 1,5, and 20 year bonds, it doesn't mention returns for 2,3, and 4 year bonds. I can't seem to find this information anywhere on the web or financial libraries. The Dfaus.com date also does not discuss municipal bond returns, which I hear tend to have a steeper slope. Information on this would be helpful for my asset allocation on the bond portion of my portfolio. |
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#14
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| Tad Borek <borekfm[at]pacbell.net> writes: - quote - > should look into the Ibbotson reference that Rich mentioned. A summary
Specifically:> of that data is included on DFA's web site at www.dfaus.com - go to > Strategies, Fixed Income. (No I don't work for them, I use their funds http://www.dfaus.com/strategies/fixed/ -- Rich Carreiro rlcarr[at]animato.arlington.ma.us |
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#13
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| Mark Aiken wrote: - quote - > Here's what I'm left wondering after the latest round of
For choosing a fund category to buy into, you're probably more> clarifications: I understand that longer-term bonds and bond funds > place one's capital at greater risk. However, shouldn't it be possible > to objectively express a risk vs. Duration curve, and choose a > Duration that offers the greatest reward vs. risk? interested in the basic division into say cash, short-term bonds, intermediate-term bonds, and long-term bonds. Those are the basic choices here. By "cash" I mean money market funds or 3-mo CDs or a T-bill (ie very short-term bonds). And what you see from the long-term historical data is that returns have averaged a bit higher as you go from bills to say 2-year bonds, but beyond short-term bonds (ie 5-yr) there has been very little increase in yield, with a very large increase in NAV risk. If you're comfortable speaking in terms of standard deviations (to define "NAV risk") you should look into the Ibbotson reference that Rich mentioned. A summary of that data is included on DFA's web site at www.dfaus.com - go to Strategies, Fixed Income. (No I don't work for them, I use their funds in my practice). The graph there pretty much sums it up...the issues over 5 years just haven't paid off given their risk. Even at 2 years it's looking questionable. Remember this is over the long haul and it varies all the time - right now you get an extra ~3% from long bonds. - quote - > Can anyone offer comments on determining what length of bond offers
You can get much more sophisticated in defining where the risk/reward> the best reward, considering the capital risk? sweet spot is (beyond just looking at the chart of returns vs. standard deviation) and opinions will vary. I think DFA describes their approach on that site, it's based on a "variable maturity" strategy - other firms do similar things as well. This is how they choose bonds within a given maturity range. For the simple question of selecting a mutual fund category, "short-term bonds" passively managed, as with Vanguard, will suit many people just fine. I find a lot of people are sold on the concept just by looking at the long-term history. "OK, right around here it looks like the chart flattens out, so why bother with the NAV risk?" -Tad |
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#12
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| Mark Aiken <mark_aiken[at]hotmail.com> wrote: - quote - > Can anyone offer comments on determining what length of bond offers
IIRC, 4 or 5 years is best. But consider laddering your bonds to get a> the best reward, considering the capital risk? variety of maturity dates and get a uniform cash flow to reduce your need for emergency funds. If interest rates go reasonably high like 8% consider some long term bonds. -- Ron |
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#11
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| mark_aiken[at]hotmail.com (Mark Aiken) writes: - quote - > Do you mean by "bond funds never mature" that, unlike individual
Yes.> bonds, there is no way of ensuring that you can recoup your capital > when buying a bond fund, as you can with individual bonds simply by > holding to maturity? - quote - > Here's what I'm left wondering after the latest round of
Yes, of course it is.> clarifications: I understand that longer-term bonds and bond funds > place one's capital at greater risk. However, shouldn't it be possible > to objectively express a risk vs. Duration curve, and choose a > Duration that offers the greatest reward vs. risk? And when you do that, you discover that short-term is almost always where to be. Request Ibbotson's _Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation_ from your library (or via inter-library loan) and look at the hard numbers. -- Rich Carreiro rlcarr[at]animato.arlington.ma.us |
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#10
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| Rich Carreiro <rlcarr[at]animato.arlington.ma.us> wrote in message news:<uzn5b813d.fsf[at]animato.arlington.ma.us> ... - quote - > > What am I missing? Please explain why, if I have a reasonably
I'm not quite clear on this concept. Do you just mean that, as another> > long-term horizon (say, 10 years) I shouldn't invest in the > > highest-yield funds I can find, even if their Duration is considerably > > longer than 10 years? > Because unlike individual bonds, bond funds never mature. poster points out after you, long-term bond funds have much more volatile NAVs, and that the increased capital risk may not be worth the higher yield? Do you mean by "bond funds never mature" that, unlike individual bonds, there is no way of ensuring that you can recoup your capital when buying a bond fund, as you can with individual bonds simply by holding to maturity? Here's what I'm left wondering after the latest round of clarifications: I understand that longer-term bonds and bond funds place one's capital at greater risk. However, shouldn't it be possible to objectively express a risk vs. Duration curve, and choose a Duration that offers the greatest reward vs. risk? It sounds like that is effectively what people are doing when they shun the longest-term bonds and bond funds because the extra NAV volatility "isn't worth the higher yields". Can anyone offer comments on determining what length of bond offers the best reward, considering the capital risk? Mark |
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#9
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| Mark Aiken wrote: - quote - > I'm confused about how a bond's trading
Mark,> price gets set: is a bond's trading price exactly the price that would > make its YTM whatever the prevailing yield is for that type of bond? To add to Rich's answer...one way to see very practically how this works is to look at the Treasury yields for the bonds listed in the daily Wall Street Journal. You'll see that all Treasury bonds of a certain maturity date might be yielding say 2.10%, but those include a range of original coupons and issue dates. A "two-year bond" can be a 30-year bond in year 28, a five-year in year 3, or a brand new 2-year. The prices for all have adjusted so that the yield to maturity is the same 2.10%. So the holder of the 30-year bond can't boost yield by swapping...to the market it's the same bond and will be priced with the same yield. - quote - > What am I missing? Please explain why, if I have a reasonably
Because as you go to longer durations, the price drop should yields> long-term horizon (say, 10 years) I shouldn't invest in the > highest-yield funds I can find, even if their Duration is considerably > longer than 10 years? change will be much greater than the extra yield you'll earn. And you might decide that the price-drop risk is too large compared to the extra, say, 2% or 3% yield. The rule of thumb, not precise, is to multiply duration times the percentage change in interest rates...that's the price drop/rise you'd expect. If duration is 12, as with a 20 yr 5% bond, then a 2% change in yields would result in a 24% or so drop (or rise) in price. (google: DURATION CALCULATOR there are plenty out there). Given the low rates today most people are waiting for that price-drop scenario; historically, long-term bonds have yielded closer to 7-7.5% instead of just 5-5.5%, and sometimes they've been much higher. Is the extra yield worth the risk of a 20%+ drop? A lot of people say "no" and stick with short term bonds (or funds). -Tad |
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#8
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| mark_aiken[at]hotmail.com (Mark Aiken) writes: - quote - > pmb[at]his.com (Paul Michael Brown) wrote in message news:<pmb-0108041354410001[at]max1ka-19.his.com> ...
You make the same in either case.> > > Buying individual bonds presents only the risk that you will forgoe > > > higher returns if rates rise after your purchase, and/or that the bond > > > will be called when rates drop. > > > It's true that if you hold an individual bond until maturity (or until > > it's called) you will get your principal back, plus whatever the yield > > is. Now everybody *thinks* this "protects" them in a rising rate > > environment. The problem is that you are tying up your money until the > > bond matures. > I understand what "opportunity cost" means, but here's a point that > I'm not as clear on; consider two scenarios: > A: You buy a 20-year/5% bond, and hold it to maturity. You ignore > interest rate changes for the duration. > B: You buy the same bond. At year 5, you notice that the yield for > 15-year bonds of this quality has spiked to 10%. You sell your bond > (at a loss), and buy a 15-year/10% bond at face value with the > proceeds (ignore the fact that that would make it a strangely priced > bond). You hold the new bond to maturity. > In which scenario do you make more money? Think about it -- in scenario B, the price of the bond you've been owning has dropped such that over the remaining 15 years of its life it'll have a YTM of 10%. In other words, the bond you've been owning is now a 15-year bond with a 10% YTM. So when you go looking for 15-year 10% YTM bonds to purchase, you may as well buy the bond you just sold. But of course, that's the same as not having sold the bond in the first place. Hence the two outcomes yield (ha the samefinal value. [And remember, you can't buy a 15-year 10% YTM bond at *face value* with the proceeds of the sale of your original bond -- you sold the original bond at a loss, so the proceeds are less than the face value of a new bond.] - quote - > The only reason I haven't precomputed the answer is that I'm
Bingo.> confused about how a bond's trading price gets set: is a bond's > trading price exactly the price that would make its YTM whatever the > prevailing yield is for that type of bond? - quote - > So it would seem that there is some measure of protection in holding
The only protection there is from holding to maturity is> bonds to maturity, no? that in doing so you're guaranteed to get your principal back in its entirety. - quote - > the long run, improves one's total return. You also mention the rule
I'm not the original poster, but I disagree with that rule of thumb,> of thumb that one should be willing to leave one's principal untouched > for at least the Duration of any bond funds one is invested in. for precisely the reasons you point out. Relatedly, remember that the duration of a fund will (not counting active decisions by the manager to change it) stay the same. So if you buy into a fund with an average duration of 10 years, six years later it'll still have an average duration of 10 years. But if you buy a bond with a duration of 10 years, six years later it'll have a duration of around (but definitely not exactly!) 4 years. Hence my disagreement with the proposed "rule of thumb." - quote - > The reason this is confusing to me is that it would seem that the NAV
Well, yes. That's true of any mutual fund regardless of it's type> for a bond fund should strictly reflect the trading value of the bonds > it holds. (aside from a money-market fund) -- the NAV will, by definition, strictly reflect the trading value of whatever securities it holds. - quote - > What am I missing? Please explain why, if I have a reasonably
Because unlike individual bonds, bond funds never mature.> long-term horizon (say, 10 years) I shouldn't invest in the > highest-yield funds I can find, even if their Duration is considerably > longer than 10 years? What I might be willing to agree to is that if your horizon is long enough to cover a complete interest rate cycle, then invest in funds with a duration that is the length of the cycle. But good luck defining such a cycle! -- Rich Carreiro rlcarr[at]animato.arlington.ma.us |
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#7
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| pmb[at]his.com (Paul Michael Brown) wrote in message news:<pmb-0108041354410001[at]max1ka-19.his.com> ... - quote - > > Buying individual bonds presents only the risk that you will forgoe
I understand what "opportunity cost" means, but here's a point that> > higher returns if rates rise after your purchase, and/or that the bond > > will be called when rates drop. > It's true that if you hold an individual bond until maturity (or until > it's called) you will get your principal back, plus whatever the yield > is. Now everybody *thinks* this "protects" them in a rising rate > environment. The problem is that you are tying up your money until the > bond matures. I'm not as clear on; consider two scenarios: A: You buy a 20-year/5% bond, and hold it to maturity. You ignore interest rate changes for the duration. B: You buy the same bond. At year 5, you notice that the yield for 15-year bonds of this quality has spiked to 10%. You sell your bond (at a loss), and buy a 15-year/10% bond at face value with the proceeds (ignore the fact that that would make it a strangely priced bond). You hold the new bond to maturity. In which scenario do you make more money? The only reason I haven't precomputed the answer is that I'm confused about how a bond's trading price gets set: is a bond's trading price exactly the price that would make its YTM whatever the prevailing yield is for that type of bond? Despite my confusion, though, it would seem that one MUST end up with more money in scenario A, otherwise everyone would always invest in the longest bonds they could find, knowing they could cash them in and trade up if rates change? So it would seem that there is some measure of protection in holding bonds to maturity, no? In the rest of your (very informative) post, you explain that a rising-rate environment isn't all bad for bond investors, since it pushes up the yield paid by bond funds one may already own, which, in the long run, improves one's total return. You also mention the rule of thumb that one should be willing to leave one's principal untouched for at least the Duration of any bond funds one is invested in. I'm a little perplexed by this last point, namely, the advice that one should buy a fund with a longer Duration if one is a longer-term investor, and a shorter Duration if one is going to withdraw the money sooner. For short periods of time, this makes sense simply from a risk perspective: you don't want short-term money in a fund whose NAV is extremely volatile. But suppose I'm investing with a 10-year horizon. Should I really avoid a fund with a 20-year Duration, but that pays a better Yield? The reason this is confusing to me is that it would seem that the NAV for a bond fund should strictly reflect the trading value of the bonds it holds. This means the NAV should move up and down with interest rates, but not march steadily upward like the NAV of a stock fund over long periods of time. As I understand it, the reason that one can get away with investing in a riskier stock portfolio if one is a long-term investor is the expectation that although stock prices will fluctuate, the underlying capital appreciation trend will have "time to work" if you wait for long enough. Contrastingly, though, it would seem to me that the length of time you hold a bond fund has nothing to do with how likely it is that you will have a capital loss when you sell your shares. If you hold your shares for 1 year or 20, if interest rates are rising in the same way when you sell, wouldn't the fund NAV be equally depressed? What am I missing? Please explain why, if I have a reasonably long-term horizon (say, 10 years) I shouldn't invest in the highest-yield funds I can find, even if their Duration is considerably longer than 10 years? Many thanks, Mark |
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#6
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| pmb[at]his.com (Paul Michael Brown) writes: - quote - > So Mr. Zollars' point is well-taken: Do an apples-to-apples analysis to
Exactly!> make sure your rate of return AFTER tax is competitive. Far too many people think the idea is to minimize taxes. The actual idea is to maximize after-tax return. The two are *not* the same. -- Rich Carreiro rlcarr[at]animato.arlington.ma.us |
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#5
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| - quote - > But since many people react very emotionally on tax matters
Excellent point. Let's not forget than federal income tax rates have been> quite often you'll find people with municipal bonds that are > giving them a significantly lower after tax yield than they could > get from similar taxable bonds. reduced and the brackets adjusted. So lots of folks have a lower marginal rate these days than five years ago. Also, unless you get into state-specific munibonds (or munibond funds) you still have to pay state tax. (And perhaps AMT. But I'll leave that to the tax geeks.) So Mr. Zollars' point is well-taken: Do an apples-to-apples analysis to make sure your rate of return AFTER tax is competitive. |
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#4
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| - quote - > However, one needs a considerable amount of money (I've heard
For the "retail" investor in munibonds, there are also significant> ~$100K) to invest directly in munis, since the individual bonds have > fairly high face values (I've heard > =$25K). transaction costs when buying and selling. Moreover, unless you have a ton of money to invest it is difficult to construct a diversified portfolio if you purchase individual bonds. On the other hand, if you are looking to get the double tax exemption (or if you're looking to avoid issues subject to the dreaded AMT) purchasing individual bonds permits you to ensure you get the issuer and the bond that works best for you. - quote - > Therefore, if you want to invest in munis but don't have a pile of
This is the method I have chosen to hold munibonds. Specifically, I own> money, consider muni bond funds. several different Vanguard munibond funds. The annual fee is less than 20 basis points. And I can fine tune the duration of my munibond investment by shifting money among the funds. - quote - > Also, I understand that it is generally expected that interest rates
True, but some folks are not so sure. If you want to read the case for> will rise over the coming years [insert obvious disclaimer on > predicting the future here]. deflation and falling rates, surf over to the Prudent Bear web site. Bond Guru Bill Gross at PIMCO has looked at the threat of deflation in his commentaries as well. - quote - > Buying individual bonds presents only the risk that you will forgoe
It's true that if you hold an individual bond until maturity (or until> higher returns if rates rise after your purchase, and/or that the bond > will be called when rates drop. it's called) you will get your principal back, plus whatever the yield is. Now everybody *thinks* this "protects" them in a rising rate environment. The problem is that you are tying up your money until the bond matures. In some cases, that can take decades. (Especially if you're desparate for yield and you buy bonds of longer maturities.) That is not a risk you should ignore without some serious consideration. Suppose you buy a bond today that matures in 20 years and you think you're doing great because it pays five or six percent. Suppose further that interest rates go up sharply in a year or two. (There are many scenarious for this.) Now the going rate is eight or nine percent. You can either sit around for 20 years earning a below-market return. Or you can sell you bond at a discount ("below par"). Finally, a lot can happen to the issuer in 20 years. Suppose that city elects some corrupt mayor who runs the city's finances into the ground and the city defaults? My point here is that being a retail purchaser of munibonds presents risks not appreciated by most people. So you really need to do your homework. - quote - > A bond fund that trades bonds, presents the additional risk of capital
This is true. If interest rates rise, the net asset value (NAV) on> depreciation when interest rates rise. munibond funds will go down and the value of your principal will go down too. The amount by which the NAV will go down depends on the fund's DURATION. (Which is *not* the same thing as the "maturity" of the bonds in the fund.) The LONGER the duration, the GREATER the loss if rates rise. - quote - > If you mispredict interest rates, you can end
The analysis is more complicated. Granted, when rates rise the NAV of the> up losing principal in addition to having forgone potentially > higher-rate investments. This doesn't sound like fun, particularly for > a newcomer to bond investing. munibond fund goes down. But there is a BIG DIFFERENCE between buying an individual bond and buying shares in a bond fund. If you buy the invidual bond, your yield ("coupon") is FIXED for the life of the bond. But if you buy shares in a bond fund, the yield fluctuates with the market. Stay with me here. If rates rise, your NAV goes down and your principal decreases. But at the same time, your YIELD goes UP. Obviously, the higher yield offsets the decline in NAV. This is particularly true if you choose to reinvest the monthly dividends. If rates rise, your dividend goes UP and the price of the shares you are bying goes DOWN. Over time this works to your advantage. In fact, there are studies showing that over many years almost all of a bond fund's return comes from *dividends* not from NAV appreciation. So the long term bond fund investor really doesn't care about NAV. He'd rather see a high dividend. And when rates rise, so does the dividend. Even though the NAV might fluctuate, if you hold onto a munibond fund long enough your principal is going to be just as safe as if you'd bought individual bonds. Don't believe me? Look at the 10-year rates of returns for any munibond fund. You won't find any that have lost money. (Vanguard has a very good explanation of all this on their web site.) Of course, rising rates can be a VERY BAD thing for bond fund investors in the SHORT term. The mistake people make when they buy munibond funds is that they look for the one that has the highest yield. Problem is that's the fund that has the longest duration. And if rates rise, that's the fund where the NAV will decrease the most. Then they panic and sell at a big loss. KEY POINT: You must "fine tune the average duration" in your munibond portfolio. If you're investing for the short term put your munibond money in funds that have *very* short durations. There are munibond funds that have durations so short there are similar to money market funds. Going slightly farther out the yield curve, there a munibond funds that have "short" or "limited" durations. If your time horizon is longer, consider funds with an "intermediate" or "long" duration. Worried about the issuers defaulting? There are munibond funds that invest only in insured issues. Aggressive investor who wants to take advantage of issuers that have bad credit ratings? Seek out a fund that buys "high yield" paper. RULE OF THUMB: Don't buy a munibond fund unless you are prepared to leave your money untouched for as long as that fund's DURATION. For example, the duration on my Vanguard Long Term munibond fund is roughly six years. I don't invest any money in that fund that I might need before 2010. - quote - > When I put this all together, though, I can't think of any way of
Here's what to do. Construct a "portfolio" of munibond FUNDS.> investing in muni bonds in my taxable investment account. I fear > buying a muni bond fund, since that seems to imply the risk that its > NAV will plummet as interest rates rise. Using the Vanguard product lineup, I recommend five funds of varying duration: 1. Money market 2. Short 3. Limited 4. Intermediate 5. Long (I'm sure you could do this with other fund companies as well.) Vaguard requires a $2K minimum investment, so you'll need at least $10K. (Better you should have more than $10K because you're going to want to put more than the minimum in some of the funds.) Depending on your time horizon and your call re the direction of rates, you can allocate your money among the five funds. If you need the money soon and you think rates are going up, overweight the money market and short funds. If you're 25 and investing for retirement, overweight the intermediate and long funds. You get the idea. If you are dollar cost averaging (and you should be) adjust the allocations by changing how you invest new money. That way, you'll reduce tax accounting hassle. You want to avoid sales and exchanges if possible. SUMMARY: There is interest rate risk in ALL fixed income investments. So regardless of whether you buy individual bonds or munibond funds, if rates spike up sharply (like they did in April) you are going to take a hit. If you can't tolerate that, put your cash in an insured savings account or in a money market fund and don't be whining about a yield of less than one percent. But if you're investing for the long term, munibonds can be a good addition to your fixed income portfolio. (Especially if you're in a higher tax bracket.) And carefully managed, I think that a "portfolio" of munibond FUNDS is a smart way to invest in them. |
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#3
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| Mark Aiken wrote: - quote - > But I don't see how this results in advice about how to invest in
I believe the response was directed towards the implications of the> munis without losing one's shirt when interest rates rise. Can you > please elaborate on your advice? response that buying the bonds and holding them to maturity "got around" the loss of principal problem. It doesn't really--it just masks it since you accept below market interest rates in exchange for eventually getting back your *nominal* principal. And should inflation take off (which is one thing that will tend to drive up rates), what you are paid back with will be worth less (and in the late 70s and early 80s potentially a *lot* less) than what you invested. A mutual fund may make it clearer what has gone on--but in both cases, your big problem is if you are forced to liquidate the investment and dip into the principal. - quote - > The previous respondent on this thread suggested that I buy a bond
That advice has two key components. First, it deals with your> fund that holds primarily short-term munis, and that follows a > "buy-and-hold" strategy similar to what I would do myself if only I > had enough money. Do you have any comment on this advice? concern about a fund trying to "trade" to make money. That seems much less likely with a fund concentrating on short maturities. Second, the concentration on near term maturities means that you have a lower exposure to changes in interest rates impacting your principal, since there's a short time period till the payoff of the nominal principal. As well, you'll shortly be able to reinvest that principal at the new (supposedly higher) interest rates. That said, you'll also tend to find you get somewhat lower initial yields with this strategy (the old risk/return issue), especially when the market expects that over the long term rates will rise. Finally, remember that you have to compare *after tax* yields on municipal bond options vs. taxable bonds of comparable risk. Merely be "exempt from tax" doesn't mean you come out ahead by holding these bonds as opposed to taxable ones. In essence, to take this to an extreme, earning 0.5% tax free is generally *not* going to be better than earning a fully taxable 10% return. But since many people react very emotionally on tax matters (avoid them at all costs), quite often you'll find people with municipal bonds that are giving them a significantly lower after tax yield than they could get from similar taxable bonds. -- Ed Zollars, CPA Phoenix, Arizona |
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#2
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| I wrote: - quote - > > When I put this all together, though, I can't think of any way of
To which "Jimmy Smith" <nospam[at]pleaseno.more> responded:> > investing in muni bonds in my taxable investment account. I fear > > buying a muni bond fund, since that seems to imply the risk that its > > NAV will plummet as interest rates rise. On the other hand, I don't > > have enough money or know-how to buy munis directly and hold them to > > maturity, which would side-step this problem. > > > What am I missing? Is there an instrument I can invest in that is > > similar, or equivalent, to buying and holding muni bonds to maturity? - quote - > long term munis are not very liquid if you need to sell. if rates go up,
I understand that long-term bonds are much more sensitive to interest> your principal will drop significantly. you lose your buying power. rate fluctuations than shorter-term bonds. And I understand that when rates rise and one is forced to sell a bond with a below-market coupon rate, one loses money. But I don't see how this results in advice about how to invest in munis without losing one's shirt when interest rates rise. Can you please elaborate on your advice? The previous respondent on this thread suggested that I buy a bond fund that holds primarily short-term munis, and that follows a "buy-and-hold" strategy similar to what I would do myself if only I had enough money. Do you have any comment on this advice? Regards, Mark |
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#1
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| long term munis are not very liquid if you need to sell. if rates go up, your principal will drop significantly. you lose your buying power. "Mark Aiken" <mark_aiken[at]hotmail.com> wrote in message news:db82a211.0407291606.2ba0ee7[at]posting.google.com... - quote - > I'm trying to learn more about bond investing, as I have developed the > sneaking fear that the stock market may be entering a prolonged period > of tepid performance, and I'm looking for an appropriate hedge. Please > forgive any obviously stupid questions. > So far, I have uncovered the following general pieces of advice: > - For people in highish tax brackets, muni bonds are a good choice > since their proceeds are tax-exempt. > - However, one needs a considerable amount of money (I've heard > > $100K) to invest directly in munis, since the individual bonds have > fairly high face values (I've heard > =$25K). > - Therefore, if you want to invest in munis but don't have a pile of > money, consider muni bond funds. > Also, I understand that it is generally expected that interest rates > will rise over the coming years [insert obvious disclaimer on > predicting the future here]. > So far so good. However, I have also read that buying individual bonds > and holding them to maturity is very different from trading bonds, or > buying bond funds (which trade their holdings). As I understand it, > buying individual bonds presents only the risk that you will forgoe > higher returns if rates rise after your purchase, and/or that the bond > will be called when rates drop. If you are happy with the rate being > offered by the bonds you buy, or buy short-term bonds, this isn't the > end of the world. > Again, as I understand it, deliberately trading bonds, or holding a > bond fund that trades bonds, presents the additional risk of capital > depreciation when interest rates rise (since the lower-rate bonds' > price is pushed down). If you mispredict interest rates, you can end > up losing principal in addition to having forgone potentially > higher-rate investments. This doesn't sound like fun, particularly for > a newcomer to bond investing. > When I put this all together, though, I can't think of any way of > investing in muni bonds in my taxable investment account. I fear > buying a muni bond fund, since that seems to imply the risk that its > NAV will plummet as interest rates rise. On the other hand, I don't > have enough money or know-how to buy munis directly and hold them to > maturity, which would side-step this problem. > What am I missing? Is there an instrument I can invest in that is > similar, or equivalent, to buying and holding muni bonds to maturity? > If *you* had a bunch of money to invest in bonds, and it had to be in > a taxable account, what would *you* do in today's climate? > For bonus points, comment on whether it is a sound strategy to > construct a ladder of individual TIPS in retirement accounts. > Many thanks for any pointers, > Mark ======================================= MODERATOR'S COMMENT: Please trim the post to which you respond. |
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| Mark Aiken wrote: - quote - > - For people in highish tax brackets, muni bonds are a good choice
Many high-bracket investors stick with munis but really, you just weigh> since their proceeds are tax-exempt. the rates against each other, based on your tax bracket. For a lot of people taxable bonds yield more, even after paying the tax. - quote - > - However, one needs a considerable amount of money to invest
Even for larger chunks of money, funds can be better:directly in munis, since the individual bonds have > - Therefore, if you want to invest in munis but don't have a pile of > money, consider muni bond funds. * you can invest & redeem odd amounts like $1352, at any time, without needing to worry about things like "spreads" (as you do when you sell a bond through your broker) * your interest payments are reinvested easily & immediately which isn't the case w/indv bonds * you're diversified across probably hundreds of issues which means you're diversified across issuers & across different maturities * you just don't need to worry about keeping an eye on your bonds which to me is easily worth the small expenses associated with a well-run fund. But if you want to buy them individually, you can find bonds for $5k face, or $1k in some. It'd be hard to put together a broadly diversified portfolio but that may be OK, as long as you ladder them through time & buy insured bonds. - quote - > Again, as I understand it, deliberately trading bonds, or holding a
Same happens with individual bonds, it's just a question of whether you> bond fund that trades bonds, presents the additional risk of capital > depreciation when interest rates rise (since the lower-rate bonds' > price is pushed down). If you mispredict interest rates, you can end > up losing principal in addition to having forgone potentially > higher-rate investments. This doesn't sound like fun, particularly for > a newcomer to bond investing. decide to sell them (at a loss) or not. And with both, it's a relatively minor issue as long as you stick to short-term bonds, which generally means issues maturing in 5 years or fewer. - quote - > When I put this all together, though, I can't think of any way of
Stick with mutual funds that invest in short-term, high-quality> investing in muni bonds in my taxable investment account. I fear > buying a muni bond fund, since that seems to imply the risk that its > NAV will plummet as interest rates rise. On the other hand, I don't > have enough money or know-how to buy munis directly and hold them to > maturity, which would side-step this problem. > What am I missing? Is there an instrument I can invest in that is > similar, or equivalent, to buying and holding muni bonds to maturity? bonds...these have very limited risk to NAV. Or buy individual bonds but with maturities no more than say 5 years out. Stick with funds that have a boring strategy that looks a lot like the "buy & hold" you described. - quote - > If *you* had a bunch of money to invest in bonds, and it had to be in
Maybe for a piece of it but not the whole thing...IMO the> a taxable account, what would *you* do in today's climate? > For bonus points, comment on whether it is a sound strategy to > construct a ladder of individual TIPS in retirement accounts. before-inflation yield is too low at the moment. -Tad |
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| I'm trying to learn more about bond investing, as I have developed the sneaking fear that the stock market may be entering a prolonged period of tepid performance, and I'm looking for an appropriate hedge. Please forgive any obviously stupid questions. So far, I have uncovered the following general pieces of advice: - For people in highish tax brackets, muni bonds are a good choice since their proceeds are tax-exempt. - However, one needs a considerable amount of money (I've heard - quote - > $100K) to invest directly in munis, since the individual bonds have fairly high face values (I've heard > =$25K). - Therefore, if you want to invest in munis but don't have a pile of money, consider muni bond funds. Also, I understand that it is generally expected that interest rates will rise over the coming years [insert obvious disclaimer on predicting the future here]. So far so good. However, I have also read that buying individual bonds and holding them to maturity is very different from trading bonds, or buying bond funds (which trade their holdings). As I understand it, buying individual bonds presents only the risk that you will forgoe higher returns if rates rise after your purchase, and/or that the bond will be called when rates drop. If you are happy with the rate being offered by the bonds you buy, or buy short-term bonds, this isn't the end of the world. Again, as I understand it, deliberately trading bonds, or holding a bond fund that trades bonds, presents the additional risk of capital depreciation when interest rates rise (since the lower-rate bonds' price is pushed down). If you mispredict interest rates, you can end up losing principal in addition to having forgone potentially higher-rate investments. This doesn't sound like fun, particularly for a newcomer to bond investing. When I put this all together, though, I can't think of any way of investing in muni bonds in my taxable investment account. I fear buying a muni bond fund, since that seems to imply the risk that its NAV will plummet as interest rates rise. On the other hand, I don't have enough money or know-how to buy munis directly and hold them to maturity, which would side-step this problem. What am I missing? Is there an instrument I can invest in that is similar, or equivalent, to buying and holding muni bonds to maturity? If *you* had a bunch of money to invest in bonds, and it had to be in a taxable account, what would *you* do in today's climate? For bonus points, comment on whether it is a sound strategy to construct a ladder of individual TIPS in retirement accounts. Many thanks for any pointers, Mark |
| Tags |
| investing, munis, rates, rising |
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