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| daft[at]hotmail.com (jt) wrote in message news:<be594162.0309301145.4ec0eaaf[at]posting.google.com> ... - quote - > > I think the current situation illustrates why gold and foreign > > But not cash. I've kept bills and coins that have gone obsolete > when I return to that country and try to use it (some Belgians > almost seemed ready to call police on me). Sure is nice the way > old US currency stays negotiable. Ulp! Don't try to use an old dollar bill in eastern Europe! The counterfeiters are very good, so there is great suspicion of an old or heavily handled US dollar. - quote - > From a counterfeit point of view, the euro is even better: unfamiliar, and relatively simple design. You can, I believe, still take old european currencies to a bank and exchange them for euros, but they are not legal tender. One of the big issues was all that hidden money under matresses, black economy etc. flowing back into the system. |
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| - quote - > I think the current situation illustrates why gold and foreign
How about Permanent Portfolio fnd http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=prpfx> currency investments should be part of investors' portfolios. Purer approaches are unhedged foreign bond funds, but that brings in risk from bond cycles. You can get foreign bank accnts on internet sometimes with high interest (eg. Norway), but that has it's own risk. Could get gold stock funds (speculative) or more conventional foreign stock funds. But much of foreign capitalization exists in tired Japanese and European economies burdened with aging workforces, about to plunder their economies via pension payouts (I do notice in many of these places a rising tide of Filipino and other guest workers that may help things). Anyway would it be best to target less developed economies (asia, east euro, latin america) or small growing companies like in fnd http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fismx - quote - > Inflation-indexed treasury bonds are another possibility, but the
This is such a good point where such bonds are indexed against> current inflationary policies of the U.S. will operate with a lag on > consumer prices. The foreign exchange and commodity markets react much > more quickly. prices (probably understating rising service prices you experience) and not the spikes in interest rates that may have experienced. - quote - > In general, I think it's good to have some diversification among
But not cash. I've kept bills and coins that have gone obsolete> currencies, just as one diversifies among stocks. when I return to that country and try to use it (some Belgians almost seemed ready to call police on me). Sure is nice the way old US currency stays negotiable. |
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| "John A. Weeks III" <john[at]johnweeks.com> wrote in message news:<270920030733294109%john[at]johnweeks.com> ... - quote - > In article <3064b51d.0309230516.66cf62bb[at]posting.google.com> ,
Agreed, but there may be funds that invest in gold shares that are> <beliavsky[at]aol.com> wrote: > > I think the current situation illustrates why gold and foreign > > currency investments should be part of investors' portfolios. > 1) Gold produces no rate of return, it just sits there and > gathers dust. > 2) Gold investing has been a disaster over the past decade. > 3) Gold has not approached within even 50% of its all-time > highs for over 20 years. > Nearly all gold investing schemes are scams designed to prey > off of paranoid religious extremists who believe that the world > is going to end any day now. Avoid these things at all costs. interesting. Because gold shares do pay (small) dividends, and the world supply of gold appears to be diminishing (or rather, the cost of production appears to be rising, and there has been relatively little new investment, particularly in South Africa, over the last 20 years). I hate gold as an investment, because I do not understand it. And holding it as a hard commodity strikes me as a very expensive investment strategy. But my very distrust/ distaste, could well be a sign that there are real opportunities for contrarians. I note Marc Farber has started a commodities fund (one way of playing that by a closed end fun is the Merrill Lynch World Mining Trust, listed on the London Stock Exchange: only about 30% of its assets, however, are gold shares). Gold plays an interesting role in portfolio hedging. Because it is highly sensitive to the dollar and inflation (high volatility, and relatively uncorrelated with the stock market), a relatively small amount of gold can provide diversification benefits which would require a much larger holding in foreign currency bonds (unhedged) and/ or inflation indexed bonds. Beliavsky is right. We are likely in for an extended period of a weak dollar: this is to correct a record current account deficit, and parallels the period after the September 1985 Plaza accord, when the dollar halved against the Dmark and the Yen. http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/mov...es/002263.html http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/mov...es/002249.html In such an environment, the dollar prices of raw materials (and gold) could well rise. Inflation could increase, particularly as the dollar fall will force the European Central Bank to cut interest rates. But I agree most such direct investment schemes into gold are likely scams. |
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| In article <3064b51d.0309230516.66cf62bb[at]posting.google.com> , <beliavsky[at]aol.com> wrote: - quote - > I think the current situation illustrates why gold and foreign
1) Gold produces no rate of return, it just sits there and> currency investments should be part of investors' portfolios. gathers dust. 2) Gold investing has been a disaster over the past decade. 3) Gold has not approached within even 50% of its all-time highs for over 20 years. Nearly all gold investing schemes are scams designed to prey off of paranoid religious extremists who believe that the world is going to end any day now. Avoid these things at all costs. -john- -- ================================================== ================== John A. Weeks III 952-432-2708 john[at]johnweeks.com Newave Communications http://www.johnweeks.com ================================================== ================== |
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#-1
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| The Federal Reserve is keeping short-term interest rates at artificially low levels -- the real (after-inflation) Federal Funds rate is negative. Although the U.S. is running large budget and trade deficits, and thus needs foreign investors, Treasury Secretary John Snow supports dollar depreciation, especially against the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. This scares me. In the past, when the U.S. has wanted a "moderate" depreciation, it has gotten more than it asked for. I think the current situation illustrates why gold and foreign currency investments should be part of investors' portfolios. Inflation-indexed treasury bonds are another possibility, but the current inflationary policies of the U.S. will operate with a lag on consumer prices. The foreign exchange and commodity markets react much more quickly. In general, I think it's good to have some diversification among currencies, just as one diversifies among stocks. |
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| and or or, currencies, foreign, gold, investors |
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